Albert del Rosario’s Sleepless Nights
A local newspaper carried an article Thursday by former Ambassador to Washington Albert Del Rosario corroborating previous claims made by former Defense Secretary Avelino Cruz, that Gloria Macapagal Arroyo tried to declare martial law in late 2005 to early 2006 at the height of protests over the Hello Garci election cheating scandal.
Del Rosario’s account hewed closely to other accounts that have been told to me on and off the record by people who had knowledge of the events. But lets focus on two people, namely Ambassador Del Rosario and Secretary Cruz. Both were in a position to have had first hand knowledge of the events of 2005 to 2006. Both respected in the private and public sectors for their intelligence, competence, and integrity. Most importantly, neither of them are politicians.
This year, both of them have come out publicly to warn about the possibility that Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo will declare a state of emergency or even martial law to extend her stay in power. The inital reaction that many have had is disbelief. Martial law in the 21st century Philippines seems unlikely given our tragic experience with authoritarian rule. The people, the military, the international community would never allow it. Unless…..
Picture this. Its 2010 and election season is well underway. We can assume that the Adminstration will field a candidate, and that at least two others–maybe three–will have the ability to mount a viable national campaign. The Administration candidate would have to have assured Arroyo that he would protect her from the inevitable clamor to arrest and charge her with plunder and the other crimes that she has allegedly commited while in office. The other candidates would be under tremendous pressure to do the same.
As the election draws near, if it looks like Arroyo’s anointed one will lose, what is she to do? Allowing herself to be arrested and charged ala Joseph Estrada would not be acceptable. All she would have to do to avoid this is engineer a failure of elections. In almost every election, there are areas where a failure of elections has been declared. Imagine if a failure of elections in 2010 occured in half of the precincts. That would call into question the entire election, and land the country in a genuine constitutional crisis.
That’s a crisis that would be a fitting ground for a state of emergency. She could then legimately brush aside the warning of Barack Obama against declaraing martial law. Operating outside the Constitution, she could theoretically do what she wanted.
Stay in office? Sure. Suspend the writ of habeas corpus ? Done. Shut down independent media? Absolutely. Arrest dissidents? Gleefully. In fact, you-know-who is probably just itching to make more leftists disappear.
Does this all sound fanciful? Maybe but its the kind of scenario that’s keeping Albert Del Rosario and Nonong Cruz up at night. Look at election automation. The lack of diligience that the Comelec is exercising in undertaking it should be a cause for concern. Look at what happens next year around February to April with the appointment of offices to key military posts. Will they be Arroyo loyalists or professionals? Look at the composition of the Supreme Court next year. How many will be independent?
Maybe more people besides Albert and Nonong should be having sleepless nights.
August 14th, 2009 21:26
Mr.Ricky Carandang:
“I think we should stop making the President a punching bag, and let us concentrate more on the donut, not the hole.”
Speaker Nograles
August 14th, 2009 21:48
Hey ricky is it possible to ask the International Criminal Court to prosecute Gloria and her minions?
August 14th, 2009 23:15
Mindanao….
Ito ang paulit-ulit na ginugulo upang mawala ang pera at boto.
Maliwanag ang tala ng kasaysayan.
Kaya hindi matahimik ang mga kababayan natin sa dakong timog ay dahil paulit-ulit silang kinakasangkapan at ginagawang dahilan para pagtakpan ang mga hangarin ng mga hayok sa kapangyarihan.
Tuwing may eleksyon… gumugulo ang Mindanao.
Alam nating lahat yan.
Mga kababayan bantayan natin ang Mindanao.
Maaaring may mga kababayan tayong Muslim na nabubulagan, subalit mas marami ang mga kababayn nating Muslim na nabibiktima at nahihirapan.
Kung wala ang Mindanao, wala tayong Pilipinas na pag-uusapan.
Tayong lahat ay nasa iisang bangka lamang. Sama samang lulubog o lulutang.
August 14th, 2009 23:57
Please leave automation out of the scenario for a failure of elections It’s the best hope we have of involving the youth in elections. Without automation we are sure to have the failure of elections we call manual elections. We should not promote a y2k bug superstition about automation just because we (rightly) distrust Comelec and GMA.
In fact the failure of elections scenario as a pretext for martial law is far fetched.. The constitution does not contemplate a general failure of elections. The fail-over position is for Comelec to hold a manual election.
the scenario you have laid out is implausible also because it would indeed foment a people power revolution.
What I’m afraid of is martial law declared for reasons having nothing to do with the elections (which would clearly be blamed on the administration and cause a revolution).
If they have to manufacture something it’ll probably be a Bali style bombing, say at Glorietta! Or a faked assassination (where have we heard that before?)
You forgot to mention btw that a martial law declaration can be revoked OR upheld by a simple majority vote of all the members of Congress voting jointly.
That means this option must be exercised when the present Congress clearly still has the mandate of elective office. Say martial law for a month or two in March or April. Then hold the elections and bring a smiling Garci in to make the admin candidate win after discombobulating, arresting or coopting the opposition during the period of emergency rule. (since it will also be manual election thanks to Harry Roque and CenPeg).
But there MUST be elections in 2010. Even the Palace can’t get around that.
Great post by the way.
August 15th, 2009 04:24
todate, among the candidates for president in glorias stable, none is winnable. even noli has slipped in standing in the last sws survey.
her option is to ally with villar or erap. between the 2, erap would be the easier choice as she could offer him a legal way out of the prohibition that is blocking his candidacy in return for protection after she steps down.
if the election option fails, then she will coup d’tat her own government. she could sell the patrimony of this country to the chinese who’s a permanent member of the UN security council and has the power to veto its resolution and has the economic muscle to make the sanctions of the rest of the world less painful. look at Burma and Sudan.
or she could foist the above scenario to the US so that the Obama admistration will let her stay in Las Vegas or anywhere in the west after her term in relative comfort same as that ousted thai leader para wala na lang gulo.
mike could even buy a soccer team too.
the army and the supreme court are essential elements in the above scenarios thats why these two institutions are now under attact.the armed forces and the supreme court should make a firm stand on the side of the people.
remember gloria at the height of garci scandal on national tv saying sorry to the entire nation portraying a sorrowful and repentant leader when all the while she is sharpening the knife that she will use to stab the very same people shes asking for forgiveness.
if she can lie so brazenly, then she can do the unspeakable, the unthinkable,the painful.
remember that sorrowful face on tv saying “i..am..sorry..”
August 16th, 2009 09:04
The scenario is indeed getting bleaker and bleaker each day. It’s just one big fubar after another, it seems: a questionable election, a botched contract deal, a dubious and suspicious land sale, extravagant meals. If not martial law, an election to the congress is the only viable option.
August 17th, 2009 08:56
Are we not in deep shit because we, many of us at least placed her there? Even Cory was deceived. We now owe it to our children to do whatever it takes
to make sure such scenarios do not succeed. I’m afraid that we might have to fight to keep our freedom alive the hard way after all. What a waste 1986 would have been if that happens just because our leaders think only of themselves and their money. I once talked to a stranger, a Russian, over a cigarette and as we exchanged ideas, we came to talk about wars and religion, (oops) and came to the conclusion that reasonable people of different beliefs really can discuss amongst themselves and disagree peacefully over things and even come out friends. The problem really lies with our leaders. They are the ones with the capability to agitate people or choose to keep the peace.
August 17th, 2009 11:00
Dean, Erni,
Interesting scenarios.
I think the fact that martial law is even being considered by so many serious and thoughtful people as a possibility shows you how perilous our situation is now.
August 17th, 2009 15:10
dear ricky,
the air is thick with scenarios and speculations.the uncertainty is destabilizing our nation more than the abu sayaf and the reds combined.
how i wish that the president is truthful and her word can put lingering issues to rest. sadly thats not the case. she says one thing and does the complete opposite. a presidents word should be good as gold. hers is not. she cannot be trusted.
eight years ago we people-powered a drunken, womanizing gangster out of malacanang. we exorcised the devil and replaced him with what turned out to be a deviler she-devil who, this time just keeps on coming and cant be excorcised. we removed al capone and replaced him with “the bride of chuckey”.
the horror, the horror…
August 17th, 2009 20:57
Yes, speculations and scenarios do abound.. precisely because of her “Damn the torpedoes” approach in dealing with any and all obstacles in her path.
But lately she has been observed tiptoeing. Umaatras. Nervous, fidgety since she came home from the US and since Cory checked her moves even in death.
And now with the inspired media and internet warriors and the revived people power spirit continuously checking her and her minions, she’s become less gung-ho. The public mood is like a seething volcano, a cobra coiling for the strike.
Battered black and blue after those triumphs of gluttony and inebriation in the US, exposed for mysterious millions in her SALN, and further pummeled by public anger for scouting around for two Palace executive jets, followed by a Keystone Cops-bungling in the Basilan snafu… she has become a bit less obstinate.
She has some options left but they are narrowing. She may just decide to scoot it out of the country if she gets checkmated all the way up to 2010. Even the SC and AFP may decide to play checkmates considering the public mood.
Her only viable option? Scoot it out of the country on the fastest ICTSI jet to …Barbados?
August 17th, 2009 21:20
Mr. Bocobo,
Why do you insist in piggy backing the youth’s involvement in elections with automation? The problem, clearly, at least to me, is the lack of trust in the people who run the system. Automation does not guarantee anything. In fact, it can make cheating easier.
The scenario that Ricky proposes is very possible. The people of course would go out in the streets, just like in Iran, but alas unfortunately may be to no avail.
In the meantime, you may be out there in your blog crying out, blaming non-automation to election failure.
August 18th, 2009 02:19
i am just wondering if cruz and del rosario are not violating executive privileges as these informations can be classified as state secrets or privilege informations between the president and an ambassador and between GMA an a cabinet member?
Cruz, a fine lawyer, must be aware that the privacy of attorney-client privilege extends after the case bas been closed or resolved.
August 19th, 2009 01:37
Before all conflicting interests in the end, it is still American interest that will prevail. If it benefits the Americans, they will support the continuation of GMA sharing of their control of the Philippines beyond the psychological legitimate presidential term that is 2010. If it is counter beneficial to them, they will support a new politician to share their control with them. As long as they can rape our Filipinas without getting jailed, it is fine with them. It is their control of our defense system, political system, territory and all our resources which could provide them security that concerns them.
August 19th, 2009 01:52
We must not forget that the American control of our nation today is just the continuation of their having invaded us in 1899. We resisted fiercely but 500,000 to 900,000 of us Filipinos died. Our weakened resistance provided the Americans the opportunity to replace our development systems with one that is apparently ours but already corrupted. It transformed us into worshipping dependents of the rapists of our sovereingty.
August 19th, 2009 11:31
Coyote,
Good point about executive privilege and one that Cruz was very aware of. If you note in my 2007 interview with him ( and those he has had with others) he was very concerned about this and refused to answer direct questions about what happened in cabinet meetings. But I knew what happened and he knew I knew so it was a challenge to find ask him a question that would allow him to confirm the events without making violate executive privilege.
What I did was to ask him if US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld ever conveyed to him a warning not to delcre martial law and he said that Rumsfeld told him that the US would not support a declaration of martial law by Arroyo. If you think about the circumstances under which that discussion between Rummy and Cruz would have taken place, then it becomes clear that there was a plan to declare martial law.
August 19th, 2009 11:51
What about the Chinese? Looks like an attractive alternative for Gloria and her cohorts.Auhoritarian rule, will they mind, I guess not. All the money they can borrow at our expense, no problem. I’m sure the Chinese would regard human rights violations as meddling in others’ internal affairs. What’s stopping them?
August 19th, 2009 12:08
Tukayo,
The Chinese have distanced themselves somewhat from Gloria. They had a deal; $8 billion in unaccountable loans in exchange for a number of concessions, including rights to explore for pil and gas in the Spratlys and Palawan. I think the problem is that Gloria hasn’t delivered on her end of the deals and teh Chinese have lost a bit of face after she dragged them into ZTE, Northrail, etc.
I suspect they’re are in wait-and-see mode. If she leaves next year they start fresh with teh next president. If she stays, they will epxlore what can be done given the problems. Meantime, they have shut off the taps, which has required her to go to the middle East where lenders are also very liberal with money. As long as we the taxpayers pay they the government can steal as much of it as they can.
August 19th, 2009 23:41
true, but americans have move passed that era. we can keep repeating the past ills of the US, but the reality today is america is a different nation. The greatest character of america as a nation is its ability to recognize its past mistakes, learn lessons from wrong policies, and moved to a universally accepted moral norms. We have moved on from segregation to declaring Martin Luther King Jr as a national hero. This alone shows how america has changed in the last 60 years.
Of course america will always protect its own interest, but the philippines should negotiate on equal footing. The problem is the Philippines just dont get the respect that it deserves because our leaders, except for cory, were and are viewed as money hungry, corrupt, immorally bereft, beggars and unassertive who only look to washington to beg for more aid. Respect is earned.
Mangako lang ang america ng konting dag dag sa aid, halos ibigay na ang buong pilipinas sa america. Alangan namang america pa ang magsabing, “oy hindi naman tama yong kasunduan ng VFA, lugi ang Pilipinas diyan”. The Philippines should deal with America as adult, not as a young son asking for more “dagdag na baon”. Now tell me who negotiated the VFA for the Philippines. Di ba isa diyan si Miriam Santiago, na ngayon ay nagrereklamo na one way daw ang kasunduan. Figure it out!
August 20th, 2009 00:10
jose miguel,
Tulad lang ng ginagawa ni gloria. Pumunta sa America, humingi na naman ng tulong kay Obama, pagkatapos nagpakita ng lavish lifestyle. I seriously doubt Obama has ever been at Le Cirque. Eh itong kabayan nating mayayabang akala mo kung sino may kasama pang isang daan sipsip! Paano ba naman rerespetohin ng mga amerikano ang ganyang klaseng represetante ng pilipinas. Maniwala ka sa akin, kung ang aid ay pinagbobotohan ng mamayan ng amerika kahit isang sentimo hindi mabibigyan ng pilipinas dahil sa nakita kay gloria.
August 20th, 2009 00:21
ricky,
i am sure you are also aware that same rule applies with source-journalist privilege.
August 21st, 2009 23:59
It only shows that the political industry in our country is bullish as most of the people in power in our is hell bent on monopolizin and manipulating our constitution.
August 24th, 2009 01:21
With Arroyo’s very ceative gang, anything is possible. They can do pretty much anything they want under the present or even future situation. Speculation? I don’t think so. I’m very sure that every minute is spent by this administration in drawing up plans to ensure Gloria will never be prosecuted.
Let me ask you Ricky, who among the presidential aspirants do you think will throw the book at the Arroyos? I can think of only two.
August 24th, 2009 11:05
Schumey,
Who are your two?
Hard to say for sure but the most likely to try to hold Arroyo accountable, in my opinion, would be Roxas.
August 24th, 2009 17:59
Ricky,
I agree re Roxas. I think Villar will cut a deal and so will Noli.
But listen to this: Once seated, Noli or Villar will be under tremendous pressure from those who were screwed by the first family (and there are many of them). So holding GMA accountable would still be in the cards, if not in 2010 then maybe in 2011 or 2012. I really can’t see GMA riding off to the sunset–well unless chased by a pack of jackals, so I really am nervous about the ML option.
With Nograles doing the first post talking about donuts, we’re really in for a grand skewering.
August 24th, 2009 22:09
Coyote,
I consider journalist-source privilege the same level on an ethical if not legal level. The things I wish I could tell you guys.
August 25th, 2009 04:27
ricky,
I know you are a professional at the highest level. The Philippines needs more journalists like you!
I think you have that rare talent of being able to ask tough questions without hitting the nerve of the interviewee, ala Tim Russert. I am a big fan of Russert and never failed to watch his sunday show, until he passed away. I read that Washington politicians dread to appear on his show, unless well prepared.
Going back to cruz. I saw your interview with him and i was impressed with the way he handled and answered your questions. He struck me as sincere, very intelligent, level-headed, professional, and absolutely just a regular guy! If he runs as president, unless some bones show up under his closet, he is my man!
August 27th, 2009 11:50
just curious if you guys at anc ever plan to stream your show for free over the internet. not sure the pay-for-content scheme really works with bloomberg and cnbc offering the same. personally i have two laptops running 24/7, one dedicated to cnbc and the other to bloomberg. i would love to add a third dedicated to anc!
August 28th, 2009 22:31
romulo neri is largely accountable to the filipino people. if he only did not allow himself bought by gloria arroyo, he should have told people the truth and ended our sufferings of poverty caused by corruption….but it is not the end of the fight yet, big things are yet to happen. one thing sure, gloria should pay for it no matter what. she has to be jailed, and that is the wish of the filipino people especially us from mindanao. let us watch and see gloria in her most sorrowful days in 2010…we should not vote anyone endorsed by this heartless administration…
September 3rd, 2009 10:51
… remember someone once saying “… the Philippines run hell by Filipinos than heaven by the Americans…” or something to that effect? Well, shouln’t someone start revisiting another vision for the Philippines? No disrespect to the person who uttered that phrase, but that, it appears it’s what’s happening nowadays, doesn’t it? From the presidency to the lowest baranggays, what kind of leadership and vision is being supported? And to think that someone known to be a womanizer, drunkard, and a gambler is saying that he could be “something” that could be the best that could happen to our country, come on–give us a break!!!
September 11th, 2009 12:00
I’m having trouble sleeping as well. Since the Supreme Court has upheld the decision to automate, the nightmare of failure of elections is turning more and more into a reality.
We simply cannot fail. The corrosion of our institutions is unknowable and fathoms deep. But no one seems to have a firm grip over the slippery issue of test-running the polls. Everyone recognizes the problem but can’t seem to put their finger on it.
We need to make a clear argument for this systemic problem and bring it to the mainstream. Then we’d be making the first step to fixing it.
October 19th, 2009 23:34
With this kinds of natural calamities coming
to the Philippines. A President must be out of
his or her mind to declare martial law and
continue her rule. We dont know, if the tectonic plates will move far enough to bury us
all in the Pacific Ocean. Like the lost continent of Atlantis in antiquity. Or the Pacific rim of Fires Volocanoes will start
spewing lavas, burying everybody like Mt. Pinatubo. We must really be idiots to think of
politics while we are confronted by natural
calamities. Anyway, Emperor Nero of the Roman
empire was fidling his Harp, while Rome burned.
March 11th, 2010 14:04
[...] Albert del Rosario’s Sleepless Nights, August 14, 2009 and Mrs. Putin, November 30, 2009 in Ricky Carandang’s blog. [...]